In this project I created a predictive model of NBA ticket prices. 2 seasons of Golden State Warriors ticket sales data (provided by the NBA) as well as external game data including opponents and injuries were used for this analysis.

Result Highlights

The following graphic showcases the predicted ticket prices for each seat in an individual game: Image

 

Exploratory Analysis

External Game Factors

Opponent:  
Opponents Matter. Playing big market teams and a higher opponent winning percentage both lead to higher average ticket prices: Image

 

Weekday:  
Saturday games have the highest prices on average. However, there is not an overly clear trend regarding weekends: Image

 

Star Players:  
Steph Curry missed 15 games in 2022, and we can see the average ticket prices dropped quickly in the periods he missed games due to injury: Image Image

He did not miss as many games in 2023, but again these games had lower prices: Image Image

 

Gametime:  
Most games were played at 7:00 local time. 25 games were played earlier (21 of the 25 earlier games were played at 5:30). The earlier games had lower prices on average:  
Image

 

Time of Purchase:  
Tickets are more expensive when purchased further out from games. There is a sharp drop off in the price of gameday tickets: Image Days purchased before game were split into the following categories for modeling: Image

 

Stadium Areas

The following sections were deduced with the data provided: Image Image

Bowl:  
The bowl of the arena was broken down into further sections based on location and club access: Image Image

Courtside & Floor:  
The floor was split up by side: Image Image

Seat Features

Row:  
As expected, the average ticket price decreases as you go back in rows: Image This is especially true in the lower bowl: Image The trend is not as strong in the upper bowl: Image

Front Row Views (FRV):  
Many non-row 1 seats overhang tunnels or entrances and have no seats in front of them. These seats were labeled as front row views (Example below of seats overhanging the player tunnel): Image

 

Wheelchair Access (WCA) Areas:  
There are WCA (wheelchair access) areas in the arena. These seats are located in the back of sections in the lower bowl:  
Image View from seat: Image
The WCA sections in the upper bowl are located in front of or in the middle of sections:  
Image View from seat: Image

 

Graphs of New Rows Created:  
The front row view seats appear to have a premium while the WCA seats are not very expensive in the lower bowl: Image The front row view seats have an average price around the same as row 1 seats in the upper bowl. The upper bowl WCA seats have the highest average prices in the upper bowl: Image

 

Modeling

Lower Bowl:

The following model predicts ticket prices for seats in the lower bowl: Image The model backs up the earlier findings regarding external game factors:

  • Better & big market opponents lead to higher prices
  • Prices are higher in games where Steph Curry plays
  • Friday & Saturday games are the most expensive
  • Tickets get cheaper as an event approaches

 

The following graph shows predicted lower bowl prices for a specific game: Image

Findings specific to lower bowl:

  • Sideline club tickets are much more expensive, while general 100 tickets are slightly more expensive than the Pepsi club
  • Tickets closer to the center of the court are much more expensive
  • Tickets prices drop around $6 every row you go back
  • Row 1 tickets are predicted $100 more espensive than the seat directly behind them
  • Front row view seats (not row 1) are predicted $50 more than the seat directly behind them
  • Wheelchair areas are the cheapest seats in the lower bowl

Upper Bowl:

A seperate model was created for the upper bowl: Image The following graph shows predicted upper bowl prices while holding external factors constant: Image

Findings specific to upper bowl:

  • Upper behind seats are cheaper than upper bowl and upper premium
  • Predicted prices decrease as you go closer to the corners of the arena
  • Ticket prices drop around $2 every row you go back
  • Row 1 seats are predicted to be roughly $11 more than the seat directly behind them
  • Front row view seats (not row 1) are predicted $15 more than the seat directly behind them
  • Unlike the lower bowl, wheelchair access sections contain the most expensive upper bowl seats

Courtside:

Finally, a courtside model was created: Image Courtside graph (size of seat is predicted price): Image Key takeaways:

  • True front row seats are predicted to be worth roughly $1800 more than the seat directly behind them
  • Predicted prices drop around $600 when going from row BB (true row 2) to A1 (the section behind)
  • Tickets in the middle are more expensive (unless sitting behind the baskets)

Materials:

Full Write Up  
Code (R Markdown)